Reducing Business Risk: Predictive Innovation®
Every investor is concerned about risk. How do you accurately assess the risk of an innovation investment? Can you calculate an Innovation Quotient to measure it? How do you control your exposure to the risk? Can you reduce your risk and still maintain desirable profits? Yes, with the Predictive Innovation®.
All traditional methods of risk management assume you can’t truly measure risk, thus you just try your best to reduce the impact of risk. Techniques such as diversification, or stage-gate assume you can’t measure the risk and must resort to trial and error. Basing your decision on past results also is inadequate, especially when dealing with innovation. As the disclaimer states, “past performance does not guarantee future results.” Any real innovation has no past performance; it’s new, that is the point.
Predictive Innovation® reduces or eliminates the three sources of risk.
- Will the customers buy it?
- Can you profitably make it?
- Can you beat the competition?
The Predictive Innovation® first converts customers’ subjective desires into precise objective outcomes. This allows you to measure how well each idea satisfies the current and future desires. This is essential because releasing a product too soon is as dangerous as too late. Once you have an outcome diagram you don’t need costly surveys. You can actually measure how well your product meets objective requirements.
The next step of Predictive Innovation® shows you how to profitably make it and beat the competition.
All the solutions to any problem can be described by a set of 7×15 Alternative Matrices. Each of the 105 boxes in the Alternatives Matrix is an approach to solving the problem or satisfying the requirement. These 105 types describe every solution even if current technology can’t yet build it.
Since you can describe all the solutions there is no risk. You simply look at each alternative and choose the one that works. Plus you have every response to competition laid out ahead of time. You can design your product and business strategy so you can easily shift from one solution to the next always staying ahead of competition.
Perhaps best of all, you can accurately measure the risk and reward with an Innovation Quotient. Each box of the Alternatives matrix for each Outcome is an innovation. Some of them are on the market, others are Blue Ocean waiting to be developed.
To calculate risk, simply count the number of untapped boxes and divide by the total for an Innovation Risk Quotient. The higher your Innovation Risk Quotient the greater your chance of success.
To calculate value, use normal market size and value methods for each box then sum the available boxes. This is the real total available market. Since you already have detailed descriptions of each innovation you can accurately estimate cost providing you with Return On Innovation.
Predictive Innovation® Maximize profits, Eliminates risk, and neutralizes competition.
Physics Causing Abundance, Possibly a New Science
I suspect there is a physical constant at the core of abundance. I believe the constant is related to the relationship between the amount of information and the amount of matter involved in providing a good. This could be a huge break through for science and economics.
I don’t have the resources to explore this idea so I’m tossing it out there for someone else to develop. All I ask is you credit me with the concept. If someone wants to provide the resources I would gladly do the research.
Many people have heard of Moore’s Law or at least the effect. The number of components that fit on to a microchip doubles every 18 months. That means every 18 months new electronics such as computers are twice as powerful as the previous generation. Moores Law has been functioning consistently since the 1970’s.
Ray Kurzweil has a presentation where he points out computers aren’t the only thing with the doubling effect.
Almost all technology has some doubling. The rates of doubling are different for each technology but each one has a consistent doubling rate. So why is the rate consistent?
Innovation is an information processing activity. You analyze desires, which are information, then use information to affect something physically resulting in the desire being satisfied. There is a material component and an informational component to innovation. In fact everything in the universe has an informational component. Read more
Hyper customized video, voice, language
In my last video post I said that hyper customized video is an area for innovation. Here is an example of some emerging technology. http://cubo.cc/ The realistic animation of a woman responds to the movement of your mouse. Combine that with face tracking of a web camera and voice chat and you could literally put on a new face to talk to different people. Text to speech software like ReadPlease uses a phoneme based system to let you choose the voice. A&TT Natural Voices is virtually indistinguishable from a person talking. Voice recognition and automated language translation could allow you to appear to be anyone you want to be. And the viewer might be able to select how you sound and appear to them.
Predictive Innovation Training
Predictive Innovation: Core Skills Book
RoundSquareTriangle.com