Innovation Is Predictable
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Yesterday I was told, “Innovation isn’t predictable. If it was predictable then they would already be doing it.” That statement shows why most people can’t innovate. Every assumption was wrong. Innovation is Predictable. Innovation MUST BE Predictable.
Innovation isn’t about new. Its about satisfying peoples unmet desires. Innovation doesn’t have to be new at all. And lots of new things don’t innovate. You must satisfy a desire. That is innovation.
As soon as you realize innovation is the act of satisfying someone’s unmet desire its obviously predictable. You can’t innovate doing the same thing. That doesn’t satisfy an unmet desire. So you automatically know a big don’t list. So you can find the innovation TO DO list.
Unmet desires are easy to find. Just ask, “What could make this better?” You will get a big list of possible improvements. And the designers, engineers and marketers knew a huge list of things they didn’t include in the current product. They chose the current features from a big list of possible features. They didn’t include every feature because some features like price and simplicity were needed. So before they ever made the current product they knew how to innovate it. They had a list of innovations.
So when you realize that Innovation is Predictable your next question is how do I predict the best innovation?
Google is an Innovation Amateur
First, let me say I love Google. I was an early Google adopter and still recommend Google products. Analytics is so good that I dumped the custom tools I spent 2 years developing and now just use Google Analytics. And when Google Video was starting out I worked with them publishing videos and making suggestions to improve their tools.
I believe Google is currently the most innovative company in the world. And that is terribly sad.
Marissa Mayer at Business Week praises, “Google’s Idea Factory”. I like the insight offered af Innosight.com. Google’s Culture of Innovation as being their key to success. I was struck by “eight brainstorming sessions each year with 100 engineers” being called rigor and discipline.
When you think of a factory do you picture creative brainstorming? Or do you picture a highly organized system with clock like precision? Which do you think is more likely to deliver consistent high quality results? The random willy-nilly brainstorming approach or a well planned mapped out highly efficient system?
Even though Google has a system for soliciting and selecting good ideas it’s not much more than a suggestion box with a bunch of smart people stuffing notes in it. Sure Google increases their chances of finding a gem by casting a wide net for ideas by allowing engineers 1 day a week to work on new ideas but that still is hardly organized. This is the innovation equivalent of playing the lottery. So far Google has gotten lucky by snagging the low hanging fruit that others were just too lazy to reach.
Do you really think throwing more people and money at the problem is the best you can do? I certainly don’t.
If the folks at Google, or you, want to have a real Idea Factory you need to quickly
- Identify all possible innovations
- Organize each innovation by value
- Predict future innovations
- Follow an accurate map grabbing each innovation in order
I can hear frustrated engineers, product managers, and marketers all over the world screaming “Sure, but that’s impossible”. And they used to say the same thing about human flight, running the 4-minute mile and going to the moon.Just like it’s possible to fly or go to the moon and run a 4-minute mile, all you need is the right system and to believe it’s possible. And spreading the news about the system that makes it possible is why I write this blog.
I’ve worked with some innovation heavy hitters such as Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett Packard and Nintendo. I’ve also tried and failed to move some giants like GM out of the noose they put their own neck into. But until a few years ago I never knew the real system for innovation. Now that I do, I want everyone to benefit.
I would love to just spell all the entire OutCompete System here and now, but as can imagine, such a powerful system requires more than a few paragraphs to describe. Keep reading my blog and I’ll explain it in more detail. For now, I’ll give you a quick overview.
By using recently discovered laws of information and systems theory we can describe all possible ways of achieving a goal. Read my article “How to Predict Future Innovation” to learn the first step. As it turns out there always at least 15 solutions for any goal and on average there are 50,625 possible solutions.
If you’re not heavy into math just hold on, for a bit while I explain something to the propeller heads.
All systems can be described with approximately 7 conditions. If it takes more than 7 you’re probably describing a system made of sub systems. Furthermore, any of those conditions fits one of 15 categories. OK, fellow geeks, 15 to the power of 7 is 170,859,375. That is a whole bunch of possible innovations. But if we consider most systems only have 4 conditions that is 15^4 = 50,625.
So the OutCompete System identifies those 50,625 possible innovations. That still is a very large number but look at how we found that number. It’s totally organized by 4 condition and 15 alternatives. Now you have an organized list you can run through. No hunt and peck guessing. It’s totally predictable.
OutCompete doesn’t stop with providing a list of innovations it ranks them and literally gives you a map of step for each innovation in order of benefit to you.
Action Items
- List the innovation techniques you use.
- Count the number of innovations you generate per “brain storming session”.
- Think of at least one innovation your competitor could crush you with.
- Calculate the benefit of 15 immediately possible innovations.
How to Predict Future Innovation
When I first started writing this I titled it “How to Predict Future Inventions.” I changed that because inventions don’t really change the world. People have invented thousands of silly things that didn’t and shouldn’t have caught on. Innovation is more than invention. Innovation is satisfying a need or want. Innovation has a human element and the engineering element.
To predict future innovations first figure out what people will want then design ways to satisfy those needs and desires. I hear you saying, “Well, duh! We already do marketing research and have lots of engineers & designers working on new products.”
Notice I didn’t say what people currently want. In the past it might have been good enough to supply current demand but everything is moving so quickly today that by the time you deliver on current demands someone else will have likely already done it and the need is satisfied or the market is so changed that your product has a hard time getting traction.
You might also say, “If I could predict a future innovation I would patent it and be rich.” Well, in future articles I’ll explain why patents often aren’t the correct approach; but, for now, would you like me to give you a patentable future innovation?
People always want more, faster and with less hassle. Until they have the ultimate, their desires steadily progress to the next level of more. If you want to predict future innovations first describe the ultimate.
Since iPods are popular these days and seem to be a big innovation I’ll give you the ultimate innovation on the iPod. First what is an iPod? It’s a way to listen to music. There is nothing new about listening to music. People have been listening to music since the beginning of time. What is the ultimate in listening to music?
The ultimate of anything is,
- What I want
- When I want
- How I want
- Where I want
- Who I want it with, for, or from.
Anything that matches all 5 ultimate desires for a particular want, such as listening to music, is the direction all future innovations for that product will head. So that means we can predict the final innovation. Predicting an innovation between now and the then is just a matter of applying current technology to better satisfy one of the 5 ultimate desires.
Are you starting to see how predicting future innovation is possible? Let’s look at the example of listening to music to help bring it into focus and to reveal that patentable future innovation.
Predictive Innovation Training
Predictive Innovation: Core Skills Book
RoundSquareTriangle.com