Why We Don’t Have Flying Cars, Yet
We won’t have flying cars until we have ground-based cars that drive themselves.
Any particular innovation must achieve all the required Outcomes to satisfy the overall desire. One of the essential outcomes of transportation is arriving safely. Making a small mistake while flying is a lot more dangerous than when driving. Over 37,000 fatal vehicle accidents happen in the USA every year. Almost all of those car accidents are the result of some kind of human error. Until you can prevent the human errors in ground-based cars you can’t do it in air cars.
Innovation follows predictable paths. Trying to jump ahead increases the cost and difficulty by an order of magnitude. In other words, you must walk before you run. Its not entirely true that you can’t skip ahead, but it usually is technologically expensive and the market just isn’t ready.
It might seem like disruptive innovations drastically change things but when you more closely examine the improvements they are just the next logical step. In “Is Automotive Industry Dead or Just Stuck” my associate, Len Kaplan, explains how improving safety will lead to the next generation more efficient, more affordable, and more desirable cars. Len lays out each step for all the technological improvements to arrive at the next paradigm of cars.
A flying car must be lightweight. Except for using extremely expensive exotic materials you can’t make a flying car light and strong enough to survive a crash. The best way to avoid damage is to avoid crashing.
Car companies with a lot of push from government have been focusing on fuel efficiency. Consumers have consistently chosen vehicles they perceived to be safe over fuel-efficient vehicles. The boom of SUV sales was heavily motivated by safety concerns. So consumers are saying safety is the under served desire. If you look at accident statistics for the past 14 years, you see safety has not improved.
Government has been pushing car manufacturers to produce alternative energy cars. But serious technology problems stand in the way of making alternative energy cars viable. There is a technology gap and a consumer demand gap. Alternative energy is a future step but it’s not the next step. The next step in cars is crash avoidance.
Cars today are safer in a crash than ever before. But annual deaths from car accidents in the USA have remained over 37,000 for the past 14 years. Why are cars getting safer in a crash but deaths remain the same? In 2007, 2.5 million people were injured in vehicle accidents. There is only so much you can do to make a car crash safe. As long as the number of car crashes remains high deaths and injuries will remain high.
Prevent the crash, prevent injuries and save lives. Conveniently, the things that prevent crashes also increase fuel efficiency. Plus, the natural progression of crash avoidance also leads to electric cars.
So that leads us back to flying cars. Until the technology is developed to prevent accidents on the ground, flying cars will remain too expensive and too dangerous for average drivers.
When will we have flying cars? We will have flying cars when we have cars that drive themselves.
Letter from God to Man
This video answers these common questions and complaint.
Why doesn’t God do something about these problems? My God would not let this happen. There can’t be a God because there is so much evil.
[kml_flashembed movie="http://uploads.ungrounded.net/523000/523873_a_letter_from_god_better_a.swf" width="480" height="360" wmode="transparent" /]
When we complain about all that is wrong and point the blame at others, or give up saying it’s just the way things are, or nothing can be done to change it, how often should we look at ourselves as the cause of the problem and preventing the solution?
Deep down we all know the source of the evil and we recognize our guilt. There are four ways of dealing with guilt:
- deny
- blame
- ignore
- repent
- forgive
Which one will you choose?
Lyrics
Hey There, how, how’s it going?
Long time no see.
I know I haven’t been around much lately
But…it didn’t seem like you wanted me to be
The last time I sent down a message you nailed it to the cross
So I figured I’d just leave you to it, let you be your own boss
Read more
Reducing Business Risk: Predictive Innovation®
Every investor is concerned about risk. How do you accurately assess the risk of an innovation investment? Can you calculate an Innovation Quotient to measure it? How do you control your exposure to the risk? Can you reduce your risk and still maintain desirable profits? Yes, with the Predictive Innovation®.
All traditional methods of risk management assume you can’t truly measure risk, thus you just try your best to reduce the impact of risk. Techniques such as diversification, or stage-gate assume you can’t measure the risk and must resort to trial and error. Basing your decision on past results also is inadequate, especially when dealing with innovation. As the disclaimer states, “past performance does not guarantee future results.” Any real innovation has no past performance; it’s new, that is the point.
Predictive Innovation® reduces or eliminates the three sources of risk.
- Will the customers buy it?
- Can you profitably make it?
- Can you beat the competition?
The Predictive Innovation® first converts customers’ subjective desires into precise objective outcomes. This allows you to measure how well each idea satisfies the current and future desires. This is essential because releasing a product too soon is as dangerous as too late. Once you have an outcome diagram you don’t need costly surveys. You can actually measure how well your product meets objective requirements.
The next step of Predictive Innovation® shows you how to profitably make it and beat the competition.
All the solutions to any problem can be described by a set of 7×15 Alternative Matrices. Each of the 105 boxes in the Alternatives Matrix is an approach to solving the problem or satisfying the requirement. These 105 types describe every solution even if current technology can’t yet build it.
Since you can describe all the solutions there is no risk. You simply look at each alternative and choose the one that works. Plus you have every response to competition laid out ahead of time. You can design your product and business strategy so you can easily shift from one solution to the next always staying ahead of competition.
Perhaps best of all, you can accurately measure the risk and reward with an Innovation Quotient. Each box of the Alternatives matrix for each Outcome is an innovation. Some of them are on the market, others are Blue Ocean waiting to be developed.
To calculate risk, simply count the number of untapped boxes and divide by the total for an Innovation Risk Quotient. The higher your Innovation Risk Quotient the greater your chance of success.
To calculate value, use normal market size and value methods for each box then sum the available boxes. This is the real total available market. Since you already have detailed descriptions of each innovation you can accurately estimate cost providing you with Return On Innovation.
Predictive Innovation® Maximize profits, Eliminates risk, and neutralizes competition.
Predictive Innovation Training
Predictive Innovation: Core Skills Book
RoundSquareTriangle.com