Predict All Future Innovations
I’ve developed a method that allows you to predict all innovations for any product, service or entire industry.
Innovation is an information processing activity. To innovate you gather, analyze, organize, and then put information to use. Innovation is more than just thoughts and dreams. To make innovation real you must do something. To successfully innovate you must implement the right ideas at the right time in the right way. The Predictive Innovation Method helps you at each step of the way.
How does the Predictive Innovation Method work?
The method is based on a few basic premises, one is all possible concepts can be described, even if current technology can’t deliver them yet. Think of it like a library. There is a section and a shelf for everything. Sometimes the book has already been written and its there on the shelf when you want it. Other times you look and the book is missing. That is an innovation waiting to happen.
Another basic premise is there are consistent physical laws that govern the universe. Everything in the universe works within these laws. The interactions produce the tremendous variety we find. We see this all around us. Everything is made up of basic components following the same laws to create the variety we experience.
For example consider the common expression “the world is not black and white, it is shades of gray.” The intent is to say the world is complex and there are more than two choices. This implies decisions might be difficult or impossible.
When you examine it more closely you find something amazing. Starting with any two shades of gray you can never achieve the entire range. You can’t get darker or lighter than the two starting points. You are stuck moving to a dull point in the middle.
On the other hand if you start with black and white you can mix those two and achieve all shades of gray plus the extremes of black and white. The correct system produces infinite results with precision.
During my 25 years of experience analyzing literally thousands of systems the same basic elements and structures kept popping up. I discovered that by breaking down anything into 3 specific dimensions creating approximately 7 sets of 15 by 7 matrices I can describe anything with enough accuracy to be able to build it.
Anyone can quickly learn this method and start producing all the innovations they need. It makes innovation measurable and manageable.
My goal is to work with an organization that will support me promoting this method.
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What is Abundance?
Do you work, purchase, or consume anything? If so this new understanding of Abundance effects you.
“You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.” The character Inigo Montoya from the movie “Princess Bride”
In 2000 I began a project to change the world. My partner in this project was The Shad0w, contributor to the BitTorrent protocol and creator of BitTornado program. Napster and other peer-to-peer file sharing systems were in full swing and BitTorrent was just starting to catch on. At that point we realized that it was impossible to stop people from copying information. Music, movies, books, or software programs are all just information. Any information can be digitized. Once digitized copies are basically free. But we also realized that if people weren’t paid to make new information the world would stagnate. The entire legal system of intellectual property was based on restricting copies and now that was impossible.
While Shadow worked on BitTorrent and other technologies I worked on business models for this new world we were entering. I began researching, doing experiments and reexamining everything I knew about information. The result of that were several profound discoveries. One of them was a completely different way of looking at economics.
Disruptive Innovation, Not Here
Innovation is the big buzz word these days. Christensen’s “Disruptive Innovation” books
Let’s look at an example. My first paid programming job was creating software to apply statistical quality control. Our software was the first time a US automotive manufacturer used statistical process control. Our software was good; it saved work and provided answers that weren’t possible doing things by hand. But they weren’t doing it by hand. They weren’t doing it at all. The big impact wasn’t the technology being used; it was that they were using it. This was the first time the US auto industry consistently measured quality and applied the results toward improving.
Today it might seem obvious to measure quality. We constantly hear about quality surveys, crash tests and measurements of all kinds and all sorts. But in the early 1980’s that was basically unheard of. Only lab coat scientists took samples and used statistical models.
Affordable computers and the software I and others created made it possible to measure like never before but the biggest step was in seeing the value and doing it. As obvious as it seems today the US auto industry simply saw no value in measuring quality. But in the 1980’s the Japanese were starting to take over and it was all because of statistical process control.
The statistical process control movement was started by Deming. Oddly enough he had gone to the US Auto Makers first. He showed them this great new technique.
Deming showed that if you measure every part you make you can learn how your process works. Once you understand your process you can predict quality problems before they happen, thus avoiding the problem and produce higher quality more reliably and efficiently. For example if you’re drilling holes your drill bit wears down. After a while it stops making the holes to the proper size and shape. But if you know how long it takes for the bit to wear out you can replace it before it starts making bad parts. So you always make good parts. There is a lot more to it than that but that is the basic concept.
When the US auto makers heard Deming’s technique they rejected it outright. They said, “Measuring everything will cost too much. Your idea sounds great but we don’t need it. We don”t have a problem with quality. We could slap chrome on a turd and customers would buy it.” The truth was they had huge problems with quality but they weren’t yet feeling the effects. Maybe in the 1950’s and 1960’s a chromed turd would sell but that would change. A huge disruptive innovation was about to take place, and they chose to ignore it.
See after World War II Japan was destroyed. They were starting from scratch. By the 1960’s Japan’s industry was functioning again but they were thought of as the low cost low quality manufacturer of “cheap” things. Today in 2006 we often apply that label to Chinese products, remember that. China is now considered the same way that we once considered Japan. So how did Japan come from being the maker of cheap junk to being the recognized leader in hi-tech and hi-quality? It was through an attitude.
After being laughed at in the US, Deming went to Japan. The Japanese realized they needed something to help them, so they were open to change. That is the first most important element of innovation. All innovation starts and ends with people. Technology is a tool; innovation is the tool in action.
The Japanese took Deming’s statistical process control and turned it into a lifestyle. So in the 1980’s when I was implementing the first SPC system at a US auto plant, the Japanese had grown past it. They weren’t just 1 step ahead they were now 2 steps ahead and starting to capture the automotive market and building new markets they owned.
The Japanese accepted that they could do better. They used this new technique then they applied technology to maximize the effectiveness.
I’ve only scratched the surface of innovation. I’ll cover more about this in future articles. I’ll explore this more when I cover the following: Google, Copyrights, Democracy and Terrorism.
Action Items:
- Make a list of tasks you regularly perform.
- List 5 ways you can improve each of those tasks. Ex.: faster, cheaper, easier, more options, for more people.
- Estimate a value of having those improvements.
- Estimate the potential loss if your competitor made that improvement and you didn’t.
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