Predict All Future Innovations
I’ve developed a method that allows you to predict all innovations for any product, service or entire industry.
Innovation is an information processing activity. To innovate you gather, analyze, organize, and then put information to use. Innovation is more than just thoughts and dreams. To make innovation real you must do something. To successfully innovate you must implement the right ideas at the right time in the right way. The Predictive Innovation Method helps you at each step of the way.
How does the Predictive Innovation Method work?
The method is based on a few basic premises, one is all possible concepts can be described, even if current technology can’t deliver them yet. Think of it like a library. There is a section and a shelf for everything. Sometimes the book has already been written and its there on the shelf when you want it. Other times you look and the book is missing. That is an innovation waiting to happen.
Another basic premise is there are consistent physical laws that govern the universe. Everything in the universe works within these laws. The interactions produce the tremendous variety we find. We see this all around us. Everything is made up of basic components following the same laws to create the variety we experience.
For example consider the common expression “the world is not black and white, it is shades of gray.” The intent is to say the world is complex and there are more than two choices. This implies decisions might be difficult or impossible.
When you examine it more closely you find something amazing. Starting with any two shades of gray you can never achieve the entire range. You can’t get darker or lighter than the two starting points. You are stuck moving to a dull point in the middle.
On the other hand if you start with black and white you can mix those two and achieve all shades of gray plus the extremes of black and white. The correct system produces infinite results with precision.
During my 25 years of experience analyzing literally thousands of systems the same basic elements and structures kept popping up. I discovered that by breaking down anything into 3 specific dimensions creating approximately 7 sets of 15 by 7 matrices I can describe anything with enough accuracy to be able to build it.
Anyone can quickly learn this method and start producing all the innovations they need. It makes innovation measurable and manageable.
My goal is to work with an organization that will support me promoting this method.
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Elephant Painting, example of Free and innovation
This article will introduce a concept that my next book covers in great detail. It is the biggest problem facing society and the most wonderful opportunity. It’s called Free.
While I was in Thailand I spent two days at Maesa Elephant Camp learning to be a mahout (elephant driver). It was one of the most magical experiences of my life. Interacting with the elephants, the scenery and the way the staff treated us was amazing. One of the things I got to do was make a painting with an elephant.
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Mark Frazier with Kong Kham Painting at Maesa Elephant Camp
Many of these elephants used to work in the timber industry. The need for elephants for logging has dropped so these elephants and the mahouts were out of work. This is an example of how technology advances and makes things free. Elephants once were the cheapest way to harvest logs in terms of time and materials. But now new technology makes it even easier. People used to pay mahouts to ride elephants but they no longer get paid to do that. That is the negative side.
The positive side is timber is much cheaper now so people in general have extra resources to use on other things. And that leads us to the positive effects of Free.
When the real cost, in time and materials of a product or service drop to the point where people don’t put much thought to the cost it is treated like Free. Think of a buffet. People will try a dish they might not because it costs them nothing. And of course the only way that a buffet can work is if the scale of sales make the individual costs cheap enough to let everyone take as much as they want. This is relative Free. An example of absolute Free is a by product of another process. If you were going to throw it away it is free.
Now that no one would pay mahouts to ride elephants some innovation was needed. The solution, charge people to ride elephants. This exact same thing has happened with many industries. Now that people have extra leisure time because the products are so much cheaper they value experiences. They are willing to pay to do something in the old way just to have fun.
After spending two days riding elephants I can assure you that doing it all day every day for a job is not fun. You would have to pay me to do that, but I was more than happy to pay to learn how to ride elephants and enjoy being with them for two days. It was fabulous. A once in a life time experience.
Thailand Traffic Innovation
For the last 3 weeks I’ve been in Thailand. As I always do I look for innovations or different approaches to innovation. Thailand is a very decentralized nation. This seems to contradict the extreme nationalism but things here don’t get done on a centralized basis. The bulk of activity happens at the personal and family level.
Any place you go there is someone selling something. Go to the park and there is someone renting mats to sit on the grass. Walk down the sidewalk and there are hundreds of food carts and other miscellaneous things for sale. And on the roads there is extreme variety. Bicycles, push carts, motorcycles, tuk tuks, cars, trucks converted in to buses, mini-buses, full sized buses and trucks. You might even see an elephant.
It’s well known that Bangkok traffic is some of the worst in the world. It took me 4 hours to ride a bus 6 miles (12 km). They don’t even bother having schedules because it is impossible for a bus or a car to know how long it will take to get anywhere in Bangkok. This is a huge drag on productivity. But rather than complain, Thais find their own individual solution.
Family of Four on Motorbike in Thaialnd
My second home is Chicago and even though Chicago has nearly double the population density of Bangkok traffic runs very smoothly. Chicago’s traffic problems are mainly during rush hour on the expressways leading into or out of the city and surrounding sports stadiums before and after a game. Chicago has a subway and elevated, and buses that show up every ten minutes and you don’t have to negotiate the price of riding a taxi. Chicago is very organized and centrally controlled.
Am I suggesting Bangkok become more centralized? No. The centralized control is not what makes Chicago work. It’s the variety of options available to the individual. But didn’t I say that Bangkok has more options? Actually no. Even though there are many different types of vehicles they all have to travel the same path. The only way to travel through Bangkok is the city streets. If the roads are crowded in Chicago you can take the subway or light rail. You can drive on the city streets or the free way or the toll-expressway. And the buses have dedicated lanes.
The motorbikes in Bangkok have found an alternative road, the space between cars. When cars, trucks and buses are stopped the motorbikes drive between. Motorbikes don’t compete for the roads with the larger vehicles. The motorbikes are able to use an over looked resource, the small space between vehicles.
The motorbikes also follow another important aspect of successful innovation. An individual can easily purchase a motorbike. For the price of one months rent you can buy a motorbike. It does not require a large investment and switching to motorbikes can be done one person at a time. Incremental investment but huge gains for the person choosing a motorbike.
Bangkok has one elevated train called the Sky Way and a second Sky Way line under construction. The Sky Way is the nicest train I’ve every seen. It greatly helps those who want to travel along the line but it doesn’t do much good for others. The Sky Way is extremely expensive to build and doesn’t help anyone until the whole thing is completed. This is high cost and high risk.
One of the reasons the personal computer revolution and now the Internet has been so successful for innovation is nearly anyone can try something. The barriers to entry are very low and the rewards can be extremely high. Decentralized or at least distributed systems are much more likely to result in successful innovation. The “moon mission” approach usually fails. One of the big benefits of Predictive Innovation Method is it reveals all the alternatives. This allows you to build towards a large end goal but do it with small and progressively successful steps. That reduces risk, maximizes profits and eliminates the threat of competition.
Predictive Innovation Training
Predictive Innovation: Core Skills Book
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