Predicting the Next Disruptive Innovation
In The Perils Of Extrapolation: Who Knows What The Next Disruptive Innovation Will Be Mike Masnick points out how important it is for an entrepreneur to be able to respond to changes. If you can accurately predict the next big innovation its easier for you to respond to change or even be first to market.
Traditional forecasting doesn’t work well for innovation. Trend analysis isn’t very accurate for predicting the future because it’s looking at the past rather than what makes the future happen. That is why most people thing, “It’s always difficult to predict which innovation is actually going to hit”.
Predictive Innovation® changes that and puts you in control, increasing profits, decreasing risks, and neutralizing competition.
Can You Innovate Without Craziness?
Bizarre and weird behavior isn’t the source of innovation. Innovation is satisfying customers’ unmet desires. Unless your customers want to watch you act crazy then bizarre behavior is not innovative.
All you need to satisfy customers’ unmet desires is to understand your customers and have a system for creating products and services that do more of what customers want. That sounds remarkably sane.
So why all the hype about acting like a lunatic to be innovative?
Innovation by definition is change. Crazies love change, any change, the wilder the better. Sensible people naturally avoid most change because it also produces risk. But sane logical people change all the time. What they want to avoid is risky change that doesn’t provide value. Give a sane well adjusted person a low-risk high value improvement and they will gladly accept that change.
Innovation Is Predictable
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Yesterday I was told, “Innovation isn’t predictable. If it was predictable then they would already be doing it.” That statement shows why most people can’t innovate. Every assumption was wrong. Innovation is Predictable. Innovation MUST BE Predictable.
Innovation isn’t about new. Its about satisfying peoples unmet desires. Innovation doesn’t have to be new at all. And lots of new things don’t innovate. You must satisfy a desire. That is innovation.
As soon as you realize innovation is the act of satisfying someone’s unmet desire its obviously predictable. You can’t innovate doing the same thing. That doesn’t satisfy an unmet desire. So you automatically know a big don’t list. So you can find the innovation TO DO list.
Unmet desires are easy to find. Just ask, “What could make this better?” You will get a big list of possible improvements. And the designers, engineers and marketers knew a huge list of things they didn’t include in the current product. They chose the current features from a big list of possible features. They didn’t include every feature because some features like price and simplicity were needed. So before they ever made the current product they knew how to innovate it. They had a list of innovations.
When you realize that Innovation is Predictable, your next question is how do I predict the best innovation?
