Predicting the next Disruptive Innovation
In The Perils Of Extrapolation: Who Knows What The Next Disruptive Innovation Will Be Mike Masnick points out how important it is for an entrepreneur to be able to respond to changes. If you can accurately predict the next big innovation its easier for you to respond to change or even be first to market.
Traditional forecasting doesn’t work well for innovation. Trend analysis isn’t very accurate for predicting the future because it’s looking at the past rather than what makes the future happen. That is why most people thing, “It’s always difficult to predict which innovation is actually going to hit”.
Predictive Innovation® changes that and puts you in control, increasing profits, decreasing risks, and neutralizing competition.
Where to Start? Always Start With Customers!
I recently taught a short introduction to Predictive Innovation® class for a group of design students at Eastern Michigan University (EMU). One of the students listed his biggest problem as, “not knowing where to start.” He had a product idea and hundreds of ways to approach it but he didn’t know how to begin to get it to market.
I must apologize to that student because I did not clearly answer his question. The correct answer of where to start is always, “Start With Customers!”
Outcome diagram the customers’ desires. Find the most pressing must be satisfied outcome then base your product and marketing around that desire. Make sure there are enough customers you can reach and who will pay for the product or service you plan to offer. If you can, pre-sell your product to them. Use their up front commitment to get financing to develop the product. That might mean actually having them pay or it might mean showing the width and depth of demand to investors.
Figure out what products the customers already own or use and try to use those as resources to develop your product. If they already own items that perform 80% of the tasks then its much easier for you to be an add-on rather than reinventing the wheel. For instance if they have a laptop with a USB connector then you can get power for your device from their laptop battery. Or you can use the keyboard and screen of their laptop to see and change settings in your small USB device.
Figure out all the desires that your product or future or generations of your product could satisfy. Look at the lifetime value of the customer relationship.
If you’re planning to partner with another company to get your product to market they are your customers as much as the end consumer. Draw the outcome diagram for all the desires related to buying and selling your product. Make sure you satisfy those outcomes.
The particulars of manufacturing or a design alternative over another are just details. The most important thing to remember, “Start With Customers.”
Alternative to Closing for Legendary Greek Restaurant
The 80 year old owner of Detroit’s oldest Greek restaurant New Hellas Cafe, Gus Anton, is shutting the business down claiming he needs the rest and can’t keep up with it any more. Surely he deserves to retire after 57 years of running the business his father started in 1901. Unfortunately shutting the business down means 35 people lose their jobs. Anton say he hopes the workers will get rehired if the restaurant is sold. He said, “he doesn’t have anyone to take over. His son is ill and one of his grandchildren wants to be a plumber, the other a doctor.”
How about selling it to the employees?
I realize that business has been way down but I suspect the people working there need their jobs and know how to run it without Gus. I also suspect the business is still profitable. I suggest that Mr. Anton either sell the business and the building to the employees or lease it to the employees while he is attempting to sell the building. Since he was planning on closing the doors he doesn’t seem to need the money right away. This would give the loyal worker a chance to improve their lives and save Gus and his family some money, and maybe even make a bit more. Perhaps the employees turned owners have some ideas to make the business more successful.
Venerable Greek restaurant in Detroit to shut doors
