Comments on: Predicting the Future http://markproffitt.com/2006/10/07/predicting-the-future/ Predictive Innovation for Business & Society Fri, 11 May 2012 06:07:19 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Mark http://markproffitt.com/2006/10/07/predicting-the-future/comment-page-1/#comment-10 Mark Tue, 12 Dec 2006 14:54:34 +0000 http://www.markproffitt.com/?p=7#comment-10 The OutCompete method isn't about predicting the next innovation, its about predicting ALL POSSIBLE future innovations. With that information you select most beneficial to you. And you keep doing this so you constantly stay ahead. If you know about quantum physics (doesn't everyone? hahaha) , then you've heard of Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. In a nutshell it says for very small things you can either know the amount or the location (time in this instance) but you can't know both. Heisenberg doesn't say you have no clue about the one feature you can't know, he says the best you can do is determine a probably. And for time a probability is all we need. Since we are always moving forward in time all you need is a rough estimate of how far in the future an innovation will occur. So if you know what the next batch of innovations will be you're golden. The OutCompete method isn’t about predicting the next innovation, its about predicting ALL POSSIBLE future innovations. With that information you select most beneficial to you. And you keep doing this so you constantly stay ahead.

If you know about quantum physics (doesn’t everyone? hahaha) , then you’ve heard of Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. In a nutshell it says for very small things you can either know the amount or the location (time in this instance) but you can’t know both.

Heisenberg doesn’t say you have no clue about the one feature you can’t know, he says the best you can do is determine a probably. And for time a probability is all we need. Since we are always moving forward in time all you need is a rough estimate of how far in the future an innovation will occur.

So if you know what the next batch of innovations will be you’re golden.

]]> By: Daniel Markham http://markproffitt.com/2006/10/07/predicting-the-future/comment-page-1/#comment-2 Daniel Markham Wed, 06 Dec 2006 17:09:57 +0000 http://www.markproffitt.com/?p=7#comment-2 Product cycles are an immensely fascinating topic, Mark. Just like stocks, while there are predictable patterns in the graphs, "timing" the market is still a pretty tough thing to do. Perhaps it is even a fool's game. I was showing a stock purchase to a relative one day, showing him how I bought at a low price. The stock went up quite a bit, then turned around. After it had dropped 20 percent or so I sold it. He said, "How come you didn't sell when it was at the top?" I told him, "Because I only knew it was at the top later on, that's why. At the time it looked like a small correction" While customers follow a pattern, it's always good to remember that many times you can push just one more feature before you have to go back cheap again. Sometimes not. It's a tough decision for product managers to make. Product cycles are an immensely fascinating topic, Mark. Just like stocks, while there are predictable patterns in the graphs, “timing” the market is still a pretty tough thing to do. Perhaps it is even a fool’s game.

I was showing a stock purchase to a relative one day, showing him how I bought at a low price. The stock went up quite a bit, then turned around. After it had dropped 20 percent or so I sold it.

He said, “How come you didn’t sell when it was at the top?”

I told him, “Because I only knew it was at the top later on, that’s why. At the time it looked like a small correction”

While customers follow a pattern, it’s always good to remember that many times you can push just one more feature before you have to go back cheap again. Sometimes not. It’s a tough decision for product managers to make.

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